2019 U.S. New Issuance in a Virtual Dead Heat With 2018 After a $48bn May (Erb/Manzi)
CMBS issuance was the standout in May, compared with declines in the other three major asset classes on a May 2019 over May 2018 basis. May’s structured finance (SF) new issuance volume came in at $48bn, down modestly from $51bn in the comparable year ago period. YTD 2019 new issuance is now just ahead of 2018, at $230bn (scroll down for table).
ABS new issuance volume came in at $20bn, off from $26bn last May. On a YTD basis, ABS issuance was $107bn, down about 6% y/y. Year-to-date auto ABS issuance (loan, lease, and rental car) is $52bn by our count, representing just under half of the total, and up about 13% y/y vs $46bn last year. Meanwhile, both cards and non-traditional/esoteric issuance are off from last year’s totals, at $11bn and $13bn, versus $19bn and $18bn a year ago. Commercial ABS (equipment, fleet, dealer floorplan), at $18bn YTD, is up about 7% y/y through the end of May. On the publication side, we recently releases our April auto loan ABS tracker and semi-annual Timeshare indices, both available here.
CLO new issuance volume was roughly $10bn in May, down 11% from May 2018. On a YTD basis however, CLO new issue volume was nearly unchanged from last year's figure, coming in at $55bn. Refis/reset/reissue volume continued to be substantially lower in May, down 66% y/y (May 2019 vs May 2018) and 73% YTD, coming in at $5bn and $18bn for May and YTD, respectively. Click here to view our recent CLO publications including our long awaited sequel to our popular article on CLO indenture provisions: Par Wars: Return of the Covenants? The article includes a "current status" update for each of the 10 CLO indenture items we identified in the original piece. Also, worth checking out — our CLO spotlight article, A Look Back At 15 Years Of U.S. BSL CLO Industry Exposures.
CMBS posted its largest monthly volume YTD, with $11bn in May bringing the 2019 figure to $31bn (we don’t count CRE CLOs in our NI total). That puts 2019 CMBS slightly ahead of the year ago figure of $29bn during the first five months. Our 2019 forecast remains at $80bn. Most of the $11bn in May came from the single borrower side, with over $7bn across 11 deals, bringing YTD SASB issuance to $16bn. Some $4bn in conduit issuance during May (four deals) brought the 2019 total thus far to $14bn (the remainder is small balance transactions). Click here to view our recent CMBS publications including Co-working May Come With Risks For Office Landlords And CMBS Investors.
PL-RMBS related issuance came in at $7bn in May. YTD RMBS related issuance is at $37bn, up 13% from this time last year. Non-qm issuance continues to have a strong year and is now approaching $8bn YTD, nearly double last year's figure. Click here to read our recent RMBS related publications including Key Factors For Assessing U.S. Non-Qualified Mortgage Bank Statement Loans.
Turning to the Numbers...
The 10yr Treasury was 2.13% for the week ending May 31, down from 2.33% last week. NYMEX crude oil was down $5.30 w/w to $53.33. U.S. regular gas prices averaged $2.83 this week, down 2 cents w/w and down 13 cents y/y. The S&P 500 was down 2.62% w/w to 2752.06. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.99%, down 7bps w/w (down 57bps y/y). The Euro was trading at $1.1168, down $0.0039 w/w.
Recent Presales (available here)
U.S. RMBS: Angel Oak Mortgage Trust 2019-3
U.S. ABS: Verizon Owner Trust 2019-B
U.S. ABS: Ally Auto Receivables Trust 2019-2
APAC RMBS: SMBC Residential Mortgage Trust Certificates No. 41/SMBC 41 RMBS ABL
U.S. CLO: Trimaran Cavu 2019-1 Ltd.
U.S. ABS: Welk Resorts 2019-A LLC
U.S. CLO: OHA Credit Funding 3 Ltd.
U.S. ABS: SMB Private Education Loan Trust 2019-B
U.S. RMBS: GCAT 2019-NQM1 Trust
U.S. CMBS: Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2019-H6
U.S. CLO: FS KKR MM CLO 1 LLC
U.S. CLO: HPS Loan Management 14-2019 Ltd./HPS Loan Management 14-2019 LLC
U.S. ABS: Illinois Finance Authority (Midwestern University Foundation) (Series 2019)
U.S. CLO: Owl Rock CLO I Ltd./Owl Rock CLO I LLC
U.S. ABS: Glendale Industrial Development Authority, Arizona (Midwestern University Foundation) (Series 2019)
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Conference Recap: SFIG Vegas 2019
On PACE For A Greener Future In Structured Finance
Conference Recap: CREFC 2019 And A Look Across The CMBS Market
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Hot Takes From Opal’s 2018 CLO Summit
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The Perfect Storm... For Defaults?
ABS East Recap
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Recent In-Depth Articles (available here)
CLO Spotlight: European CLOs: Lack Of Loan Supply Is Causing Further Portfolio Overlap
Servicer Evaluation Spotlight Report™: Commercial Mortgage Servicers Deal with a Faulty but Functioning Flood Insurance Program
Credit FAQ: How We Rate Korean Covered Bonds
U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker March 2019
Spotlight On Italy's Securitization Market On The 20th Anniversary Of Law 130
CLO Spotlight: Once Upon A Time: A Look Back At 15 Years Of U.S. BSL CLO Industry Exposures
U.S. Timeshare Securitization Performance Index: New Issuance Grew In Second-Half 2018 As Defaults Remained Near 10-Year Average
Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2018 Annual U.S. Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study
New Issue: Dutch Property Finance 2019-1 B.V.
Swedish Covered Bond Market Insights 2019
Future Of Banking: Fintech Flags Turning Point For Australian Banking
Subprime Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Losses Have Stabilized, But Renewed Growth Bears Watching
U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: February 2019
CLO Spotlight: Sector Averages Of Assets Held in Reinvesting U.S. BSL CLOs: First-Quarter 2019
Harmonization Accomplished: A New European Covered Bond Framework
Global Structured Finance Issuance Volumes For Q1 Steady As China Growth Offsets Declines In Europe And U.S.
Co-working May Come With Risks For Office Landlords And CMBS Investors
Key Factors For Assessing U.S. Non-Qualified Mortgage Bank Statement Loans
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