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U.S. Structured Finance New Issuance Volume at $64Bn in November, $541Bn YTD (Manzi/Erb)
U.S. Structured Finance (SF) new issuance volume reached $64bn in November, with $20bn in ABS, $14bn in CMBS, $10bn in CLOs, and $19bn in private label RMBS. Monthly issuance was up by about $19bn from last November's reading, with gains in each major SF sector save CLOs. U.S. SF new issuance volume now totals $541bn YTD, up 6% y/y, and already eclipses 2018’s full year figure of just over $530bn. Scroll down for the summary table.
ABS issuance volume reached $240bn YTD at the end of November, up 3% y/y, following a $20bn month. Our full year 2019 forecast was $245bn, which is likely to be a bit low, but not too far off on a percentage basis. While credit card and student loan ABS issuance are down y/y, autos, equipment, and personal loan ABS gains have more than made up the difference. On the publication side, we recently released our September 2019 U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker, available here.
CMBS issuance reached $84bn YTD in November, up 17% y/y (note that we do not include CRE CLOs in our CMBS totals), eclipsing our $80bn forecast for 2019, which had been on the high end of the range of most forecasts made earlier this year. At this point a figure closer to $90bn looks more likely. Both conduit and SASB have been active of late; indeed, November’s monthly total of over $14bn is the highest print since November 2007, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert data.
CLO new issue volume was $110bn YTD as of November, matching our full year forecast. This is the only sector down y/y; granted, 2018’s total was the highest ever recorded for the sector. CLO reset/refi issuance continues to be down by over 70% this year, now at $42bn, which included $3bn in November. For more on CLOs, read our recent publication that provides color on the record exposure to B- obligors via scenario analysis: To B- or Not to B-, a Scenario Analysis in Three Acts, available here.
Private label RMBS issuance reached $107bn YTD in November, up 27% y/y, and exceeding our initial full year forecast of $100bn. Non-QM volume remains strong at about $23bn YTD, well over double 2018's 11-month figure. For more on RMBS and housing, see For U.S. Rental Housing Issuers, Scarcity Is A Good Thing, available here.
Keep an eye out for the executive summary of our 2020 global SF outlook, which we’ll release in mid-December. We expect to have the full article (along with a webcast invitation) available sometime during the second week of January.
Recent Presales (available here)
U.S. Auto: Ally 2019-4
Australian RMBS: Firstmac No. 4 Series 4-2019
U.S. CLO: Magnetite XXIV
U.S. RMBS: CSMC 2019-NQM1
U.S. CLO: Barings CLO Ltd. 2019-IV
U.S. CLO: GoldenTree Loan Management US CLO 6 Ltd
U.S. RMBS: Bunker Hill Loan Depositary Trust 2019-3
Recent EMEA Presales (available here)
Elvet Mortgages 2019-1
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XVI DAC
Auto ABS UK Loans 2019 PLC
Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2019 - Vantage2 PLC
Cardiff Auto Receivables Securitisation 2019-1 PLC
Canada Square Funding 2019-1 PLC
VCL Multi-Compartment S.A. , Compartment VCL 29
Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2019 – Auburn 13 PLC
Globaldrive Auto Receivables 2019-A B.V.
Northwoods Capital 19 Euro DAC
Take Notes (available here) Covering More New Ground: The Rise Of Sustainable Covered Bonds
Incorporating ESG Into Our Structured Finance Framework
Conference Recap: ABS East 2019
U.S. Student Loans: Should We Forgive And Forget?
What's Up (CLO) Docs?
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Conference Recap: European Structured Finance Conference 2019
The Evolution Of Marketplace Lending
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Conference Recap: Global ABS In Barcelona
What’s Heating Up in the Solar ABS Space
Conference Recap: IMN CLO Conference 2019
Co-Working On The Rise A New Office Space For CMBS And REITs
Covering New Ground: Covered Bonds Expand Into New Markets
Blockchain On The Brain
Across The Pond With European CMBS
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